A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
